Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Life changing? Not now.


Stumbling On Happiness
by Daniel Gilbert

Surprising expose of how our brain deceives, our memory misweaves, and our predictions for the future are so very, very dependent on what's happening right now.  They call it "presenting"--the bias introduced in predictions of future enjoyment, caused by current feelings. Ever had the experience of stuffing down a huge Thanksgiving dinner and declaring, "I'll never eat again."?  I have, and even if I didn't believe myself "for real", that doesn't mean it didn't affect my prediction of how much I'd enjoy a turkey sandwich tomorrow. (Little or not at all, I'd say.  And I'd be wrong.)

I started off the book with an enormous amount of disbelief and never really overcame it it.  Studies based on human answers to questions are inherently flawed, and if you "want" to see something happen, you can usually vary the questions to make it happen.  But when he'd start off with a theory of how we expected ourselves to feel and then predicted a theory that sounded plausible, and then proceed to flatly contradict the theory, my reaction was, wow! Really?  And I'd lean a little farther in the direction that he was pulling me.

It's a good book and it made me think. Is his every theory or conclusion proven beyond a reasonable doubt?  No, but as long as you recognize that, it's worth a (thoughtful) look.


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